Bitcoin ‘sell the rally’ indicator flashes again as BTC price breaks below $45K
A Bitcoin (BTC) on-chain indicator that spotted dead cat bounces during the yesteryear bearish market corrections has flashed again in August 2021.
Dubbed “Bitcoin: Short Term Holder NUPL,” the indicator takes into account the unspent transaction output, or UTXO, of BTC transactions not more than 155 days old. In doing so, it attempts to determine whether an investor is profitable within 155 days of purchasing and holding Bitcoin.
Glassnode reported Aug. 12 that the Bitcoin NUPL for short-term investors recovered back above zero, signifying their profitable state for the first time since May 2021’s crypto market crash. Meanwhile, the blockchain analytics platform also signaled fears of potential sell-off, citing fractals from the 2014–2015, 2018 and March 2020 bear cycles.
The price action from the 2014–2015 bearish season shows BTC/USD resuming its downside correction despite a 100% rebound. Similarly, in 2018, a 97.41% upside retracement did little to secure the market from the prevailing bearish bias.
The latest upside recovery in 2021 came after the prices of Bitcoin crashed from circa $65,000 to around $29,000. The cryptocurrency rallied to $46,787 on the Bitstamp exchange following a major rebound afterward — a 63.59% jump.
Glassnode noted that such “rapid recoveries” are common in two cases: bear market relief rallies and disbelief phases of bull markets.