The run-up in the Bitcoin (BTC) price toward $50,000 last week risks exhaustion due to a mismatch between the cryptocurrency’s price and momentum trends.
So it appears the Bitcoin’s price and relative strength index (RSI) have been moving in the opposite direction since late July. In doing so, even a strong push higher in the BTC/USD bids has coincided with lower peaks in momentum, suggesting that the pair’s upside momentum is weakening out.
Technical analysts consider RSI divergence as a powerful signal to spot price reversals. For instance, a bullish divergence, wherein the price falls and RSI rises, prompts traders to buy the asset in anticipation of a rebound. Similarly, a bearish divergence—featuring rising prices and falling RSI—prompts traders to take profits at the top while expecting a pullback.
The downside signal appears as Bitcoin struggles to break bullish above $50,000. As of Sunday, the benchmark cryptocurrency was trading at $48,387, or 4.19% lower from its three-month high of $50,505, achieved on Aug. 3, following a similar 72.36% upside boom.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s daily RSI initially rallied in sync with prices but topped out on July 30, which was way ahead of price, hitting $50,505. Since July 30, the Bitcoin price formed a sequence of higher highs while RSI printed lower highs, suggesting a weakening upside momentum.
Ryan Clark, another market analyst, noted that Bitcoin has been merely consolidating below $50,000 just like when it was trading below $24,000 before the December 2020’s bullish breakout.
On the other hand, TraderXO noted that Bitcoin could still fall towards the $39,000-40,000 area but remained convinced that the cryptocurrency would log an attractive rebound from the lower range.